What sets Polymarket apart from online betting platforms in the aftermath of being questioned for predicting the presidential election online?

Opinion articles present diverse views and do not represent the position of “WEB3+.”
The recent hot topic in the cryptocurrency community is the investigation by the Taiwanese police into Taiwanese individuals participating in the outcome of the “Taiwan 2024 Presidential Election” on the decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket, on charges of gambling.
This determination contradicts my understanding because Polymarket is a prediction platform that uses collective intelligence of participants to make rational assessments of value in order to make predictions.
It utilizes the prices generated from the trading of six stocks in the investment market (Lai Ching-te’s victory or defeat, Hou You-yi’s victory or defeat, and Ko Wen-je’s victory or defeat) to reflect the market’s probability of future events.
️Background:
Online prediction of the presidential election may be illegal! Police question 17 “predictors,” what is Polymarket?
What is the difference between Polymarket and online gambling platforms?
Below, I will explain four points to highlight the differences between Polymarket and online gambling platforms.
First, gambling is a crime committed against the gambler, where the model is that “the house aims to make the gamblers bet incorrectly and lose money; the gambler aims to guess the outcome correctly and make the house lose money.” However,
all participants on the Polymarket platform have the goal of predicting the outcome, not making money.
In the case of the presidential election, participants buy any stock for the purpose of making this simulated investment market more accurate in order to achieve a more accurate prediction of the future presidential election results. By analogy, the role of each Polymarket participant is like each card in tarot cards or each character in the I Ching, existing for the purpose of making more accurate predictions, which is different from gambling from the beginning.
Second, gambling requires a commitment with no possibility of changing one’s mind before the outcome of the game is determined.
Polymarket is completely different from this. It aims to make the most accurate predictions of future events through the buying and selling of products in the investment market. Therefore, after buying any future event on Polymarket, the market allows you to sell your stock for that event at any time before the event occurs. This is also completely different from gambling.
Third, Polymarket is similar in nature to the “Futures Exchange” at National Chengchi University, which was not prosecuted in 2015. According to the principle of “same event, same treatment,” the Polymarket community should not be prosecuted.
Fourth, does Polymarket involve “property”?
Based on practical opinions, the answer should be negative. The Central Bank mentioned in the reference material preamble of the press conference after the Central Bank Board of Directors meeting on December 16, 2021: “Although stablecoins emphasize being alternative virtual assets with stable prices, they are not actually stable and do not fulfill the core functions of money.”
It can be seen that stablecoins do not have the functions of payment and recognition of value as currency. Therefore, unless Polymarket provides a mechanism for exchanging stablecoins for property or other assets, the constitutive element of “gambling property” in the crime of gambling clearly does not apply.
Returning to Polymarket, this platform does not have any exchange functionality, so participating in the Polymarket community’s prediction activities clearly has nothing to do with the crime of “gambling.”
The Taiwanese judiciary has made correct judgments in the past regarding “Futures Exchanges.” It is worth observing how the judiciary will judge the emergence of “decentralized Futures Exchanges” in the wave of technology.
Opinion articles present diverse views and do not represent the position of “WEB3+.”
Proofreading Editor: Gao Jingyuan