What makes the decentralized prediction market TrueMarkets different?
Despite facing strict scrutiny and challenges from US regulatory agencies, Polymarket gained fame and ignited the prediction market frenzy by accurately predicting the US presidential election.
Behind Polymarket’s rise, there is no shortage of support from influential figures such as Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum. Now, another decentralized prediction market called TrueMarkets has also gained Vitalik’s endorsement and support.
On November 19th, according to Paishield monitoring, an address on the Ethereum chain labeled “vitalik.eth” bridged 32 ETH to Base and minted 400 Patron NFTs.
Vitalik’s endorsement immediately caught the market’s attention. OpenSea data shows that over the past 24 hours, over 3,300 Patron NFTs were sold, with sales totaling approximately 703 ETH, ranking first in daily trading volume.
As of the time of writing, the floor price of Patron NFTs has also risen to 0.23 ETH, more than 2.8 times the minting price (0.08 ETH).
Patron NFTs are introduced by TrueMarkets, a decentralized binary prediction market based on Base. It allows users to predict the outcomes of real-world events and aims to break the information asymmetry related to global news, enabling people to express real-time emotions about potential outcomes.
TrueMarkets plans to release its V1 version by the end of this year.
Truemarkets operates on a mechanism similar to other prediction platforms like Polymarket. They simplify complex event predictions into two possible answers (“yes” or “no”) and create a binary trading market based on these answers. The odds of each answer are adjusted in real-time based on market sentiment, with traders and liquidity providers maintaining market balance and stability.
When the outcome of an event is revealed, tokens that match the correct answer can be redeemed for $1 in value, while tokens that match the incorrect answer become worthless.
However, TrueMarkets also has its unique features. According to Millie, the project manager of TrueMarkets, in most other prediction markets, minting prediction tokens is usually limited to whitelisted users. TrueMarkets aims to achieve permissionless operation, where market creation will be implemented by an AI Agent.
Furthermore, all transactions on TrueMarkets, including trading, liquidity provision, and market creation, are completed directly on-chain through Uniswap V3.
At the same time, TrueMarkets uses a protocol-based oracle to resolve market outcomes, which combines decentralized jury pools to achieve transparent decision-making.
It is worth mentioning that TrueMarkets has also opened a challenge window, where anyone can raise objections to proposed solutions.
To prevent manipulation and ensure the orderly operation of the oracle, TrueMarkets has introduced an important role called the Disputer.
Specifically, when a prediction result triggers a dispute, the Disputer can challenge it by paying a $250 deposit and providing reasons for the objection. If the challenge is accepted, the Disputer not only recovers the deposit but also receives corresponding rewards.
To ensure fairness and justice, TrueMarkets has established a three-stage arbitration mechanism, including challenges to preliminary proposals, oracle committee decision-making, and token holders voting on disputes. Each stage requires different costs for the Disputer: $250, $5,000, and holding 250,000 TRUE tokens in a wallet, respectively.
In addition, although Polymarket has been rumored to conduct token airdrops, the platform has not explicitly stated that it will issue its own tokens.
On the other hand, TrueMarkets has disclosed its token economics and will launch a Token Generation Event (TGE) by the end of this year.
According to the introduction, TRUE is a multi-functional utility token in TrueMarkets, which can be used for protocol fees and governance.
The total supply of TRUE is 100 million tokens. Among them, 40.3% will be distributed to holders of Oracle Patron NFTs (15,071) and Truth Seeker Patron NFTs (59), with each NFT corresponding to 2,666.67 TRUE tokens. 2.2% will be airdropped to Discord and beta users, and 7.5% will be used for market incentives. 12.5% will be allocated to TRUE/ETH liquidity providers on Base within two years, and 12.5% will be allocated to oracle incentives. The remaining 25% will be allocated to the TrueMarkets team and advisors, with a linear unlock within two years.
“Once prediction markets reach a critical scale, a strong feedback loop is formed. The wider their audience, the more accurate the predictions. Elections are a turning point for prediction markets because they prove that these platforms are the most accurate indicators and major sources of news. Looking ahead, it is expected that the world will increasingly rely on prediction markets for news and entertainment, and the more people participate, the stronger the predictive ability of the prediction market,” said Millie, expressing her views on the future prospects of prediction markets.
