The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is imminent, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump making their final sprint. As the election heats up, Bitcoin has started to experience significant price fluctuations.
Wall Street investment firm Bernstein’s analysts predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000.
Market analyst Miles Deutscher believes that regardless of who wins the U.S. Presidential Election, Bitcoin could reach $100,000. However, if Harris wins, it could cause an “instant sell-off” in the Bitcoin market.
As the 2024 U.S. election countdown continues, how will the cryptocurrency market develop?
In the final hours before Election Day, both Harris and Trump are making their final push in swing states, holding rallies and events, thus bringing months of campaigning to a close.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant fluctuations between October 29 and November 3, with the value falling by 8% and even dropping to $67,446 over the weekend. Although looking at the longer timeline, the majority of investors still believe the market structure remains bullish, traders anticipate that volatility will increase as the U.S. Presidential Election approaches.
As of the time of the article was written, Bitcoin’s price was $68,000, falling 1.5% in the past 24 hours.
What most people in the community are discussing is the “post-election development” of the crypto market.
Bernstein analysts predict that if Trump is victorious, Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000.
This optimistic prediction is mainly due to Trump’s constant emphasis on his support for cryptocurrencies during his rallies, including his mentioning of making the U.S. the “global crypto capital”, appointing a crypto-friendly SEC Chair to alleviate regulatory pressure, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, and making the U.S. a Bitcoin mining center among other policies.
It can be seen from all these policies that Trump leans towards a crypto-friendly environment, with his campaign even accepting cryptocurrency donations.
On the other hand, market analyst Miles Deutscher has stated that regardless of who wins the U.S. Presidential Election, Bitcoin could reach $100,000. However, the path and timing could vary depending on the election results.
He believes that if Harris wins the U.S. Presidential Election, the market may worry that the Harris administration will maintain or even intensify regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrencies, leading to an “instant sell-off” in the Bitcoin market.
How does the decentralized prediction market view this?
In addition, the recent drop in Bitcoin prices has led to increased market attention to pre-election volatility. Most traders believe that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate before the election, reflecting market concerns about the potential significant impact of Trump or Harris’s policies on the crypto market.
Aside from analysts’ positive view of the impact of a Trump win on the Bitcoin market, on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, trading volume in favor of Trump has also reached millions of dollars.
According to statistics, five major “Bitcoin whales” control more than 50% of the total votes for Trump winning the “Yes” vote. This means that if Trump indeed wins, these whales could potentially earn over $81 million.
Historically, Bitcoin prices usually rise within months after the Presidential Election. Coupled with the completion of the fourth “Bitcoin Halving” event in April this year, some in the market speculate that its price could reach a new historical high.
In any case, the election results will not only affect the future policy direction of the U.S. but will also have a profound impact on the trend of the crypto market. The global market is eagerly awaiting the post-election Bitcoin situation.
Reference Data:
cointelegraph
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cointelegraph.
