What happened?
According to the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 has increased from 77% to 86%.
From a market perspective, it is believed that the presidency of Donald Trump will serve as a catalyst for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.
If Solana ETF wants to be successfully listed, it must adopt a “Grantor Trust” structure similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and avoid being classified as a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Polymarket predicts a high probability of 86% for the listing of Solana ETF in the United States
According to data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year’s Day, the initial probability of Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 was 77%. However, Matthew Sigel, Director of Research at asset management company VanEck, responded that this probability was “underestimated.”
Underpriced imo— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 2, 2025
As of the time of writing, the predicted probability on January 3 has indeed reached 86%. The foreign media outlet Cointelegraph analyzed that Sigel’s optimism reflects the industry’s expectations for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially after the election of Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, as the President of the United States. Trump has expressed his desire to make the United States the “world’s crypto capital.”
Trump’s presidency is expected to boost the listing of Solana ETF
Whether Solana ETF will be listed or not has attracted industry attention. In June of last year, VanEck and other competitors such as 21Shares submitted relevant applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but in August, they were questioned by the SEC, pointing out that Solana may be classified as a security rather than a commodity. If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of ETFs will become more complex because it will be necessary to comply with the strict regulations of U.S. securities laws. The institution issuing the ETF must complete more compliance procedures, such as submitting detailed documents, registration applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors comply with securities law requirements, among others.
This controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of many asset management institutions, but it is believed from a market perspective that Trump’s victory will serve as a catalyst for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. Even as early as November 2024, Sigel predicted that the probability of Solana ETF being approved in the United States in 2025 is “extremely high.”
Cointelegraph pointed out that the currently listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States use a special structure called “Grantor Trust,” which is suitable for funds that simply hold a single commodity. If Solana ETF wants to be successfully listed, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being classified as a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Whether Solana ETF can be successfully listed, the year 2025 when Trump officially assumes the presidency of the United States will be a critical point.
Source: Cointelegraph, Coinpedia