What happened?
Cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket has seen a surge in betting volume ahead of the election, with trading volume surpassing $1 billion.
The topics for election-related predictions on Polymarket are diverse, ranging from the issuance of a cryptocurrency by Trump to whether Biden will pardon SBF.
Polymarket plans to raise new funds for expansion and is considering issuing its own platform token.
Increased Betting on the Presidential Election on Cryptocurrency Platform Polymarket
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, discussions on the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket have surged, making it a popular market for political and cryptocurrency predictions.
Polymarket is a platform for predicting future events, where users can anonymously create betting pools for random events and determine the outcome through a binary “yes or no” approach. This simple design has attracted a large number of bettors, especially given the high level of discussion surrounding the US election. According to data, the platform has successfully surpassed $1 billion in trading volume.
While most “prediction events” on the platform are more traditional predictions, such as who will win the election or changes in related policies, there are also some investors who specifically bet on more “special” topics.
Here are a few of the more unique event prediction topics:
– What is happening with the website suspension?
Currently, the Polymarket website has been suspended in Taiwan due to “involvement in gambling cases” to avoid further legal issues.
Election-related predictions on Polymarket
Will Trump issue a cryptocurrency before the election?
Trump’s personal brand has been quite diverse, ranging from gold sneakers to “Trump steaks,” and even launching a “Let Americans Pray Again” version of the Bible.
Now, Trump is attempting to present himself as a supporter of cryptocurrencies in front of voters and has hinted at the possibility of launching a decentralized financial platform called “World Liberty Financial (WLFI).”
Since its exposure, this project has remained quite mysterious and has naturally become one of the hot topics of discussion among netizens. According to the prediction market on Polymarket, 80% of users believe that Trump will issue a cryptocurrency before the election, making it one of the most talked-about bets on the platform.
However, not all cryptocurrency industry professionals are optimistic about this.
Nick Carter, a well-known figure in the Bitcoin field, has warned that if Trump launches a cryptocurrency project before the election, it could have a negative impact on his campaign. Such concerns are not unfounded, considering that Trump recently launched a series of products that have damaged his public image. If he follows this up with a token project, it is likely to have a negative impact on his personal image.
Will Biden support Trump?
The discussion on whether “Biden will formally support Trump” on the platform is an incredibly intriguing topic.
The origin of this is when Biden jokingly put on a red Trump hat during an event in Pennsylvania, which quickly went viral on the internet. Subsequently, a Polymarket user created a prediction market to see how netizens viewed “whether Biden will publicly support Trump.”
However, despite the jokes on social media about “Biden supporting Trump,” almost no bettors believe that Biden will publicly express support for Trump. The odds for this bet are extremely high, with a $100 bet potentially yielding returns of up to $5,280, making it one of the least likely predictions on Polymarket.
Will Biden pardon SBF?
Since April 1st, a user on the platform has been betting on whether “Biden will provide a presidential pardon, commutation, or probation for SBF, who was convicted in the FTX incident.”
Although SBF was ultimately convicted on seven charges, including fraud and conspiracy, leading to the closure of the once-top-three FTX exchange and a 25-year prison sentence and a $1.1 billion fine, he has received high praise in both the cryptocurrency industry and the traditional financial sector. Additionally, during the 2020 US presidential campaign, SBF was one of Biden’s biggest individual donors, contributing $5.2 million. Therefore, this has sparked discussions among netizens.
However, given the urgency of the presidential election, if Biden were to play the “pardon card” for SBF at this moment, it would confirm many online conspiracy theories and become a scandal for the Democratic Party. Therefore, most netizens do not believe that Biden would be foolish enough to engage in such behavior.
Other related topics include whether “the US government will have Bitcoin reserves in 2024,” “whether Trump will win and nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the cabinet,” and “whether Trump will mention MAGAcoin before the election,” among various interesting discussions.
Cryptocurrency Prediction Market Explodes, Polymarket Raises New Funds for Expansion
Polymarket’s popularity has made it a rising star in the cryptocurrency market this year.
Currently, Polymarket has raised $70 million in two funding rounds led by Peter Thiel. However, according to tech media outlet “The Information,” Polymarket plans to raise an additional $50 million in new funds and is considering issuing its own platform token.
If Polymarket continues with its token issuance plan, investors will receive warrants that give them the right to purchase tokens. Additionally, the report states that Polymarket will use these tokens “as a way to verify real-world event outcomes by users.”
Currently, Polymarket uses the Polygon blockchain to manage smart contracts and settles transactions using the stablecoin USDC. The platform reached a historic high trading volume of $472 million in August of this year, and September is also expected to be the second-highest trading volume month in the platform’s history. As of now, the trading volume has reached $397 million.
References:
coindesk, cointelegraph
