What Happened?
Economist Timothy Peterson predicts that Bitcoin’s bottom price is $69,000, believing there is a high probability it will not fall below this low point. This provides investors with an important price reference, aiding in the assessment of Bitcoin’s potential risks. Despite short-term market volatility, Peterson remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential, forecasting that its price could reach $1.5 million by 2035, highlighting analysts’ confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. The cost basis for Bitcoin is between $84,000 and $85,000, which is crucial for assessing market sentiment and potential reversals; these prices are significant indicators for investors.
Will Bitcoin Drop Again?
Recently, Bitcoin’s price experienced fluctuations, dropping to its lowest point since November of last year, raising concerns about its future direction. However, renowned network economist Timothy Peterson maintains an optimistic outlook for the future, believing there is a 75% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new high within the next nine months. Peterson tweeted in early March on platform X, indicating that Bitcoin’s bottom price is around $69,000 and that the current Bitcoin price is already quite close to this range. Therefore, he believes there is a 95% chance that Bitcoin will not fall below this low point again, and the possibility of a positive rebound in the future is significant.
Lowest Price Forward doesn’t tell you where Bitcoin will be. It tells you where Bitcoin won’t be.
There is a 95% chance it won’t fall below $69k. pic.twitter.com/Ice2groEIX— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 4, 2025
This prediction has excited netizens. The attention stems from Peterson’s past predictions, including those made during the 2020 bull market, which have proven accurate. The “Lowest Price Forward” indicator used by Peterson tracks Bitcoin’s long-term price trends; while it cannot predict where Bitcoin’s price will go, it can estimate how low the price “will not” drop. Despite Bitcoin’s price recently dipping below $78,000, Peterson believes this situation will not persist.
Peterson points out that market corrections typically occur after significant price drops, during which investors panic or despair, leading to mass sell-offs. This is followed by a cooling-off period of two to three months during which prices stabilize before rising again.
Bitcoin
In June 2020, Peterson predicted that Bitcoin would never return to a four-digit price, and indeed it has not. This year, when Bitcoin’s price was around $92,000, Peterson set a long-term target price of $1.5 million for Bitcoin by 2035. It is evident that despite market downturns, Peterson remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. While some market participants are cautious amid recent fluctuations, Peterson’s analysis indicates a more optimistic outlook. His research suggests that after this market adjustment period, Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward trend. Additionally, the “Bitcoin Price Trend” indicator has successfully forecasted long-term trends, further adding credibility to his predictions.
Geopolitical decisions and macroeconomic factors continue to influence Bitcoin’s price, with investor sentiment fluctuating in response to global events. Furthermore, on March 25, Peterson emphasized in a post on X that Bitcoin is currently near the lower bound of its historical range and has a high probability of a positive rebound in the future. He stated, “In the short term, there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will rise by more than 50%.”
Amazingly Bitcoin is tracking right along that lower bound. History repeats.
The way to interpret this chart is there is a 75% chance that Bitcoin will go higher from here, since it’s at the bottom 25% threshold. There is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term. https://t.co/NEmpwg9mWapic.twitter.com/J9P0QP2afL— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 24, 2025
Peterson’s comments are based on an earlier study that found that the majority of Bitcoin’s bullish performance typically occurs in April and October. Reviewing the performance of these two months over the past decade reveals average increases of 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively. An anonymous analyst from the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant, Crazzyblockk, pointed out that the cost basis for most active addresses is between $84,000 and $85,000, and a drop below this cost basis could trigger sell-offs. Thus, currently, the range of $84,000 to $85,000 has become a critical area influencing the price direction.
The analyst added, “These on-chain cost basis levels represent the decision zones for market sentiment shifts. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to assess trend strength and potential reversals.”
References: cointelegraph, coinmarketcap